As the third quarter of 2025 closes, my portfolio is up 72.93% year-to-date. This performance significantly outpaces not only the S&P 500 (+13.72%) and the Nasdaq 100 (+17.46%), but also the remarkably strong KOSPI 200, which posted a stunning 49.15% gain over the same period.
At the start of the year, I identified a massive shift in U.S. policy and made a bold move: I liquidated my diversified portfolio to concentrate on just two companies: Palantir and Tesla.
In my Q2 review, I asked, "Will this strategy continue to work?" The third quarter provided a clear and resounding answer. In this post, I'll review how my thesis was validated, analyze the current macro environment, and share my definitive strategy for the fourth quarter.
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2025. 09. 30
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The Thesis Vindicated: A Q3 Review
The 72.93% return is the result, but the process was driven by a clear hypothesis. In my last update, I outlined the two powerful pillars of the U.S. economy's future: 'labor productivity revolution through AI' and 'capital expansion through digital assets.' I argued that the most direct bets on this future were Tesla, Palantir, and Circle.
The third quarter proved this thesis correct, not with words, but with numbers. Let’s break down how my predictions materialized over the last three months.
Tesla: Turning Future Narratives into Present-Day Reality
My investment thesis for Tesla was never about it being just the #1 EV company. It was a bet on its destiny as a Physical AI company that will ultimately replace and augment human labor. The keys to this future, which are not yet fully realized, are the Robo-taxi and Optimus.
While many investors in Q3 fixated on short-term vehicle sales and margins, I focused on a single question: "How much more probable is the Robo-taxi narrative becoming?" Tesla did not disappoint.
Throughout the quarter, Tesla consistently updated its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and accumulated vast amounts of data, leading to the gradual expansion of its Robo-taxi network. News of validation tests starting in new cities and analyses showing exponential data growth aren't just headlines. They are the most definitive proof that the Robo-taxi blueprint is not a distant dream but a reality being built before our very eyes.
The stock market bets on this 'increase in probability.' A company’s value is re-rated not when a project is 100% complete, but when its probability of success moves from 10% to 20%. I interpret Tesla's Q3 stock appreciation as the market's acknowledgment of the accelerating pace at which this future is arriving.
Palantir: The Unassailable Power of a Technological Moat
My conviction in Palantir stems from one thing: its圧倒的な (attōtekina - overwhelmingly superior) technological moat called the Ontology. This technology unifies complex, disparate data into a single, coherent language, providing actionable insights. Once a client integrates it, switching to another solution becomes nearly impossible.
Q3 was a clear demonstration of how this moat translates into tangible business growth. Throughout the quarter, Palantir secured additional contracts with government agencies, including the Department of Defense, and steadily expanded its commercial client base into healthcare, finance, and energy.
The crucial point isn't just the 'number of new contracts.' The real story is the 'quality of growth': existing customers are expanding their contract sizes (strong Net Dollar Retention), and new clients are choosing Palantir because its technology is simply unmatched. This signifies that Palantir's Ontology is no longer just 'good tech'; it has become 'essential infrastructure' for both public and private sectors. The market rewarded this monopolistic position and structural growth in Q3.
Circle: Seeing the Growing Pie Beyond the Stock Price Noise
I’ll be honest: Circle’s stock performance in Q3 was disappointing. Pressure from a share offering and a partial correction in the tech sector weighed heavily on the price. Had I been a short-term trader, I might have sold, assuming my judgment was wrong.
However, my investment thesis for Circle was never about the 'stock price' but about the 'expansion of the USDC ecosystem.' And this fundamental metric shows my thesis remains firmly intact.
While the broader crypto market traded sideways in Q3, the total circulating supply of USDC consistently increased. This is the strongest evidence that growth is being driven by 'real demand'—for financial transactions, international remittances, and digital payments—not just short-term speculation.
A stock price can be swayed by supply, demand, and sentiment. But a company's intrinsic value is ultimately determined by the size of its market and its share within it. In Q3, amidst the 'noise' of its stock price, Circle proved its fundamental power to grow the 'digital dollar' pie. I'm sticking with that growth story into Q4.
Macro Check: Separating the Noise from the Real Threats
Being euphoric about outsized returns is a mistake. In complex markets, it's crucial to distinguish real threats from temporary noise. Right now, the two biggest issues creating uncertainty are the U.S. government shutdown and the AI bubble debate.
The Government Shutdown: The Market Already Knows the Answer
At the end of Q3, the media was saturated with talk of a potential U.S. government shutdown, creating a climate of fear. The S&P 500 did experience a brief correction during this period. However, I identified this issue not as a 'risk' to my portfolio, but as 'noise' designed to test investor psychology.
The reasoning is clearly laid out in a late-Q3 market report from J.P. Morgan. The report notes that the term "government shutdown" is itself misleading. Essential functions—defense, national security, treasury—all continue to operate normally. In fact, since departments accounting for about 85% of total government spending continue to execute their budgets, the real-world impact on the U.S. economy is likely minimal.
More importantly, the market has 'learned' this lesson. Past shutdowns have taught us two things:
They always, eventually, get resolved.
A decline caused by shutdown fears is often followed by a rally once a resolution is reached.
In short, a shutdown is a political event, not a structural crisis that damages the U.S. economy's fundamentals. Selling core assets in response to such short-term noise is an unwise move.
The AI Bubble Debate: Leaving the Party Early is the Bigger Risk
Given my portfolio's concentration, the 'AI bubble' debate is the issue I watch most closely. It is true that AI-related valuations have skyrocketed, and questioning whether we are in a bubble is entirely rational.
I found the most compelling answer to this debate in a Q3-end report from the BlackRock Investment Institute.
The report first acknowledges that valuations in the AI sector are high, approaching levels similar to the dot-com bubble, and warns of this possibility. However, it emphasizes a critical difference between then and now: AI is delivering real, measurable productivity gains, and today's corporate investment is massive and tangible. The dot-com bubble was largely fueled by future 'hopes' in consumer-facing (B2C) models. Today's AI investment is happening in the enterprise (B2B) space, where it is directly tied to survival and is already producing immediate efficiency gains.
The report's core insight is that the AI revolution is moving past the 'early adoption' phase and into the 'broad diffusion' phase. Companies that have just begun investing are now starting to reap the rewards.
Therefore, BlackRock cautions against premature pessimism. The report warns that at this juncture, a strategy of 'selling everything and leaving the market' could be the bigger risk. If the AI rally continues into Q4, the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and the "Pain Trade" for investors on the sidelines would be far greater.
My conclusion is that while bubble concerns are a variable to always keep in mind, the long-term trend of AI-driven productivity remains intact. The party isn't over. My Q4 strategy, reflecting this insight, is not to 'leave the party,' but to 'listen carefully for when the music might stop, and enjoy it wisely until then.'
Final Q4 Strategy
My core strategy for Q4 remains unchanged. My key positions will continue to be Palantir, Tesla, and Circle. These three companies are at the epicenter of the two mega-trends I identified at the start of the year—'AI productivity' and 'digital capital'—and they have definitively proven their growth theses in Q3.
However, strong conviction doesn't mean inaction, especially when managing a position that has run up significantly.
Managing Palantir's High Valuation: My biggest consideration right now is Palantir's rich valuation. The stock price has clearly outpaced the growth of its fundamentals. While my long-term belief is unshaken, this creates the potential for significant short-term volatility.
Therefore, for Palantir only, I will maintain my long-term holdings but will add a layer of flexible management for a portion of the position. For example, if the stock appears technically overbought, I may trim a small portion to realize profits. If a market-driven correction provides a meaningful entry point, I will look to add back to the position. This is a form of Swing Trading to actively manage risk and capture additional alpha from volatility, not a sign of wavering conviction.
In conclusion, I have no plans to dramatically increase my cash position or exit the market in Q4. This aligns with the macro view from BlackRock: in the current AI-driven cycle, the opportunity cost of being out of the market is greater than the risk of a decline.
Of course, if valuations across the portfolio reach a level I deem frothy in the short term, I will trim positions to build up a cash buffer for flexibility. But this would be a fine-tuning adjustment, not a change in my fundamental stance of staying actively invested through the end of the year.
Disclaimer: This is a record of my personal investment journey and should not be considered financial advice. All investment decisions carry risk and are the sole responsibility of the individual investor.
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